After the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season's first nine races, many had already penciled in 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick as the regular season champion.
The driver of the No. 45 Toyota became the first driver in the 78-year history of the Cup Series to win each of a season's first three races, and he had won five times through nine events. To put that in perspective, the 2026 season is the fifth year of the Next Gen car, and no driver has ever won more than six races over an entire 36-race season during that era.
Even as Reddick endured his first three-race win drought of the year from races 10 through 12, he still managed to extend his points lead to 129. And even with more points on offer in each race this year (up to 76 for the winner) following an offseason change, it felt like, as the regular season neared its halfway point, the regular season battle was all but over.
The 100-point playoff bonus set to be awarded to the regular season champion, which is a 25-point increase over the runner-up, following the points reset ahead of the 10-race "Chase" appeared to be Reddick's to lose.
NASCAR Cup Series points lead changes hands at Sonoma
But over the next five races, Reddick's lead over Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin decreased, thanks in large part to Hamlin's own three-race winning streak. It was just eight points heading into Sunday's road course race at Sonoma Raceway, and despite Hamlin finishing in 26th, his worst since his season-opening 31st place finish in the Daytona 500, he took the lead away from his driver.
Reddick was mired four laps off the lead lap with a power steering issue, so he finished 36th (last). Neither Reddick nor Hamlin scored any stage points, but Reddick did score a bonus point by running the race's fastest lap.
As a result, Hamlin's lead is just one point, but it's the first time somebody not named Reddick has led the standings since Kyle Larson won the 2025 championship at Phoenix Raceway in November.
It could have been a lot more than one point, had he not been spun out by Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar and forced to claw his way back just to finish inside the top 30.
Yet Reddick nearly remained on top for another week as well. Had Ty Dillon not experienced his own power steering issues and fallen to 35th, Hamlin would have been eliminated from the In-Season Challenge, and he would have been tied with Reddick on points, with Reddick winning the tiebreaker since he has won more races (five) than Hamlin (four) this year.
The surprising part of Hamlin's rise to the points lead
Reddick had led the standings after each of the 2026 season's first 17 races. After race number 15 at Pocono Raceway, he owned a 19-point lead, and with back-to-back non-ovals on the schedule after Pocono, it appeared that that lead would be safe for at least another few weeks, given Reddick's historical advantage over Hamlin on road and street courses.
But it was surprisingly far from safe.
Even with a 14th place finish on Naval Base Coronado, Hamlin cut into Reddick's lead thanks to Reddick's late flat tire, and thanks to the fact that he endured slightly less misfortune than Reddick at Sonoma, the lead now belongs to NASCAR's oldest full-time driver.
With an average finish of only 20th in those two non-oval races, Hamlin earned a net gain of 20 points over Reddick.
Hamlin hasn't led the standings during the regular season since the June 2024 race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.
Despite lackluster results from both Reddick and Hamlin at Sonoma, there are still no other drivers within 100 points of the championship lead. Team Penske's Ryan Blaney is third, 104 points behind Hamlin.
And as the evaporation of Reddick's once seemingly insurmountable 129-point lead has shown us all, no lead is safe unless it's mathematically secure.
Will the NASCAR Cup Series points lead change hands again this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway? Hamlin is currently riding a three-race oval winning streak dating back to May. The eero 400, the first race at Chicagoland since 2019, is set to be shown live on TNT beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 5.
