Kyle Larson has been the consensus best driver in the NASCAR Cup Series for pretty much this whole decade, or at least since his breakout 2021 season after moving to Hendrick Motorsports as Jimmie Johnson's replacement and winning 10 races and the championship straight away.
But the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has struggled over the past 12 months, even if a somewhat controversial championship in November was enough to keep his fans happy for a brief time.
Larson still hasn't won a race since earning his third win of the 2025 season at Kansas Speedway in May, and that race has already come and gone in 2026, as has the Bristol Motor Speedway race he won a year ago.
Kyle Larson win drought up to 35 races
He is still rightfully considered a threat to win everywhere the series goes, given his ample success across all types of venues, success that has resulted in him rocketing up the all-time wins list into the top 30 in such a short time.
But two of his three teammates have earned multiple wins since his most recent trip to victory lane, and the other one missed four and a half races due to vertigo.
Those who claimed that Larson hasn't been the same since his ill-fated Memorial Day Double attempt, during which he actually raced fewer total miles than nearly two dozen drivers who only ran the Coca-Cola 600, may still have a case.
It's no secret that Chevrolet teams have struggled to get up to speed with the new Cup Series body in 2026, similar to what we saw early in 2018 before they finally figured things out. And while Chase Elliott did win at Martinsville Speedway, that ultimately came down to a perfectly timed pit stop.
But Larson, who is sixth in the point standings, has only scored the 10th-most points this season based on race results alone, even with finishes of third place at Phoenix Raceway and Bristol and second at Kansas.
Sure, stage points matter, even if the whole concept is a bit gimmicky, and Larson deserves credit for leading the series in that category. Points are points, after all, in this new format, and he has capitalized.
But no driver has scored a higher percentage of his point tally via stages than Larson (26.35%), nearly twice the Cup Series average (13.74%). In other words, his speed is not translating through the checkered flag at the usual rate.
You can't get around the fact that his results have still simply left a lot to be desired, and while some of that can be chalked up to his last-place DNF on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, he's certainly not the only driver with two DNFs this year. And he didn't score any stage points at Talladega to inflate that aforementioned percentage, either.
For reference, Elliott is second in the series in results-based points, even with Chevrolet's ongoing struggles, trailing only five-race winner Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing.
It goes without saying that there's little to no chance Larson misses the playoffs; he's 93 points above the playoff cut line, and he'd still be above the cut line even if he had absolutely no stage points to his name this year. He can basically sleepwalk his way into the top 16.
But Kyle Larson didn't become Kyle Larson by simply being a top 10 driver.
A 35-race win drought for the only driver who entered 2026 having won at least three races in five straight years, coupled with a significant performance dip to start the season, should start to ring some alarm bells, because there's a difference between being a playoff driver and a playoff contender.
Larson has always been a contender, and there is certainly time to right the ship. But a strong second half to the regular season is crucial if he doesn't want to open up the "Chase" postseason facing a massive points deficit.