Despite Kimi Antonelli's two-race winning streak and jump to the top of the standings, which preceded Formula 1's unplanned five-week hiatus due to the cancelations of the two Middle Eastern Grands Prix in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Mercedes teammate George Russell remained the betting favorite to win the 2026 world championship at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Russell entered the year as the favorite, and the 2026 season has largely been considered somewhat of a "championship or bust" season, given the strength of the Mercedes power unit under the new regulations.
And with just how far ahead he finished of his then-rookie teammate a year ago in the standings, that status as the favorite was one that the 28-year-old Briton clearly deserved.
But it took no more than a single sprint qualifying session in Miami, 33 days after the most recent on-track action in Japan, for the tides to turn.
F1 has a new title favorite for 2026
Antonelli qualified on the front row in second place, while Russell only qualified sixth in a car that has been an absolute rocketship all year.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the 19-year-old Italian is now listed as the slight world championship favorite. He is listed at +105, with Russell now listed at +115.
Full world championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
Perhaps more notably, the pure pace advantage that Mercedes had through the first three Grands Prix of this new era seems to be completely gone, although we'll admit that one single sprint qualifying session is a pretty small sample size to draw such a conclusion outright. But four teams are now represented in the top five, after Mercedes 1-2s had become a foregone conclusion.
It's one of the reasons why those two Grand Prix cancelations, Grands Prix which presumably would have also resulted in Mercedes 1-2s, could come back to bite the Silver Arrows, and Russell specifically.
Just look at Max Verstappen's second-half comeback on the McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri a year ago. Three races over a 22-race span isn't nearly enough time to build up any sort of a sustainable points advantage, especially if there's no more notable pace advantage.
Yet even after three races, Russell isn't leading the standings in a world championship battle that has for months been deemed his to lose. Antonelli owns a nine-point lead after his wins in Shanghai and Suzuka.
Of course, Russell has not offered up much more than excuses as to why his teammate won those races, even going as far as suggesting that Antonelli didn't actually have any momentum to carry into the break.
Should Antonelli carry that momentum, which clearly does exist despite his teammate's unwillingness to recognize it, through the Miami Grand Prix weekend, the intrateam dynamic could become even more interesting, and further questions could start being asked.
The biggest, regarding whether or not Russell is keeping Verstappen's seat warm for Toto Wolff ahead of next year, has already started to heat up.
Norris, the sprint race polesitter, is the outright favorite to win Sunday's Miami Grand Prix. The 2024 winner is listed at +185, ahead of Antonelli at +250. Russell is only listed fourth at +550.
The Miami sprint race is set to be shown live on Apple TV from Miami International Autodrome starting at 11:55 a.m. ET on Saturday, May 2, while the Miami Grand Prix itself is set to be shown live, also on Apple TV, starting at 3:55 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 3.